Putin is trapped in an upward spiral of an escalation trap that's dragging the entire world into the eye of a storm. Russia is showing its frustration (of not being able to advance further into Ukrainian territory) by going after civilians and Ukraine's energy infrastructure (in anticipation of the coming winter season). Ukraine is also targeting Russia but it is currently only going after energy infrastructure, it is not actively targeting Russian civilians.
- Putin is not interested in ending military conflict with Ukraine anytime soon, at least not on terms currently being offered by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
- There is some indication that Russia is looking to double Ukrainian casualties by Spring next year. If Ukrainian casualties increase dramatically, Ukraine is expected to respond in kind by targeting Moscow with proportionate bombing. The conflict will enter Round 5.
- US - China - Russia summit over Russia-Ukraine war: Not likely to move the needle on war. This sounds more like an Axis than a grouping that's interested in equitable settlement. U.S. midterm elections are likely to have a bigger impact on the Russia-Ukraine war than the US-China-Russia summit.
- Get ready for an ugly Winter 2026.
