A temporary Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is in place while a localized truce in Kherson has already ended
A temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in place, and hundreds of people are evacuating a city during it 2. Elsewhere the picture is harder. A localized truce has ended and Kherson is bracing for the return of fighting 8, and Russian strikes cut power to thousands in Ukraine as the Kherson ceasefire nears its end 11. Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries despite opposition from Trump 14.
Israel's ambassador to Somaliland presented credentials in Hargeisa 12, and Uganda has started withdrawing its troops from Somalia 3. Israel has pulled back from Hebron after a 10-day siege, according to a Hebron governor's claim 4, though media reporting says the siege and arrests there continue 16.
Gulf leaders meet in Qatar as Washington and Tehran keep talking under threat of war
Gulf leaders are meeting in Qatar to try to prevent a new escalation in the US and Iran war, according to media reports 7. Negotiators are reportedly bracing for the worst as talks aim to reopen the strait of Hormuz 13, and mediators are continuing negotiations between Washington and Tehran amid war rhetoric 20. Iran and the United States have said they are exploring diplomacy 18. These are intentions, not agreements in force.
Conflict heat readings jump across Sudan and the Sahel, but seasonal burning may explain much of it
Satellite heat detections in Sudan and the Horn of Africa rose from below 300. Heat detections in the Sahel and West Africa rose by at least 1346 percent, while news-matched heat detections fell from 5 to 3. Heat counts of 300 or more are a ceiling, and rises in this region may reflect seasonal burning of crops and grassland rather than fighting, so these readings do not show more fighting.
News mentions of violence in Israel, Gaza and the Levant doubled from 156 to 311, and in Myanmar they rose from 30 to 56 while news-matched heat detections went from 0 to 1. Heat detections in Ukraine and Russia fell from 34 to 19, a drop that may reflect cloud cover or feed gaps rather than a change in fighting. Israeli attacks across Gaza have reportedly killed at least eight Palestinians 17, and the UN says it stands ready to keep supporting Western Sahara peace efforts as MINURSO ends 19.
Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Ukraine see politics crowd out other news, while Mexico's share falls
Politics and international affairs now make up 75 percent of Turkey's news, up from 30 percent, 85 percent in Russia, up from 65 percent, and 85 percent in Ukraine, up from 75 percent. Japan's share rose from 60 to 70 percent. Mexico's share fell from 90 to 75 percent and Brazil's from 100 to 90 percent.
Euro area news pressure lifts its sovereign heat score to 75 while the UK's score eases as sterling moves to FX stress only
The euro area's sovereign heat score rose from 59 to 75, with its news component rising from 71 to 100 and the zone moving from elevated to high. The UK's score fell from 70 to 65 as its news component dropped from 54 to 25, and sterling moved from Aligned to FX stress only. Bangladesh's score rose from 76 to 81 on chronic pressure, and a wage board was formed as garment workers protest. India's score rose from 59 to 62, Egypt's eased from 60 to 56 and Venezuela's from 61 to 59.
Storms and wind warnings strengthen in India and the Pacific while Brazil's coffee region gets heavy rain
India has red warnings for high waves on the Andhra Pradesh coast and for a cyclone, with orange warnings for storm surge and heavy rain in the same state and in Telangana. Super Typhoon In-fa weakened from 90 knots to 70, and a new cyclone, MURASU-26, was tracked with winds of 65 knots. In the United States, orange warnings cover high winds in New Mexico and Texas and storms in the Aleutians.
Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, reached 175 percent of normal over 90 days, which matters because Brazil is the biggest coffee grower and October to March rain fills the beans. The Paris Basin is at 56 percent of normal, a dry spell that matters for France, the largest EU wheat producer.
Media-attention risk eases at Netherlands, Japan and Singapore hubs
The media-attention risk index for the Netherlands fell from 62 to 51, moving from Elevated to Moderate, and Japan's fell from 62 to 54, also to Moderate. Singapore fell from 47 to 37. The overall index for manufacturing and logistics hubs dropped from 56 to 54. These scores measure media attention, not physical disruption.
Also moving on the dashboards
Marburg virus: public attention now unusually high (z 2.0, was 1.9).
What to watch
Watch whether the temporary Russia-Ukraine ceasefire holds and how Kherson's truce ends 2, 8, and whether the Qatar-hosted Gulf meeting produces a step on Hormuz 7, 13.
Sources
- Russia and Ukraine: A temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in place, and hundreds of people are evacuating a city during it. (npr.org)
- Uganda: Uganda has started withdrawing its troops from Somalia. (bbc.co.uk)
- Israel: A Hebron governor says Israeli forces have withdrawn from the city after a 10-day siege. (aljazeera.com)
- Gulf states (hosted by Qatar): Gulf leaders are meeting in Qatar in an effort to prevent a new escalation in the U.S. and Iran war. (npr.org)
- Russia and Ukraine: A localised Russia-Ukraine truce has ended, and Kherson is bracing for the return of fighting. (aljazeera.com)
- Russia: Russian strikes cut power to thousands in Ukraine as a Kherson ceasefire nears its end. (bbc.co.uk)
- Israel: Israel's first ambassador to Somaliland has presented credentials in Hargeisa. (aljazeera.com)
- United States and Iran: Negotiators are bracing for the worst as US-Iran talks aim to reopen the strait of Hormuz. (theguardian.com)
- Ukraine: Ukraine resumes attacks on Russian oil refineries despite opposition from Trump. (theguardian.com)
- Israel: Israel continues a siege and arrests in Hebron, according to a media report. (aljazeera.com)
- Israel: Israeli attacks across Gaza have killed at least eight Palestinians, according to media reporting. (aljazeera.com)
- Iran and United States: Iran and the United States are exploring diplomacy amid rising threats of war. (aljazeera.com)
- The UN says it stands ready to keep supporting Western Sahara peace efforts as the MINURSO mission ends. (news.un.org)
- United States and Iran: Mediators are continuing negotiations between the US and Iran amid war rhetoric. (aljazeera.com)
Figures in the dashboard sections come from Earthlog's own monitors (conflicts, supply-chain risk, health, currencies, attention, sovereign heat, natural hazards, rainfall and el niño) and compare their readings now with an earlier reading. Where moves are mentioned beside a change, they are context, not proven causes.
Moves are logged from public statements and reporting; tier and stage labels are Earthlog's reading of the wording, not verification.
