Governments reached for force at home and abroad
The US approved the sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine 17. Ukraine reportedly renewed drone attacks, with a Russian oil refinery reportedly struck 28. Russia reportedly launched 280 drones at Ukraine as a local ceasefire began in Oleshky 77. In the West Bank, Israel's siege of Hebron has reportedly displaced thousands of people 19.
The same reflex showed up on home streets. France deployed 70,000 police across 150 planned demonstrations 11. Riot police were reportedly sent to Poland's constitutional court 13 and to Madrid 51, and Italy reportedly tightened security as nationwide protests began 26.
Ukraine's heat detections fell 87 percent while news of violence rose 84 percent
Satellite heat detections in Ukraine and Russia fell from 229 to 30 over the week, while news mentions of violence rose from 67 to 123. The two readings moved in opposite directions. One possible reason is a measurement difference: heat detections register only on clear-sky passes, and news mentions can lag events. Media reports say a Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian railway station killed 13 people 43. In Gaza and the wider Levant, heat detections fell from 235 to 6 (-97%), a drop that may be a gap in the feed, and news mentions fell from 539 to 159 (-71%). Media reports say at least four Palestinians were killed in Gaza 6.
Myanmar showed the sharpest rise in news mentions of violence, from 8 to 53 (+562%), with heat detections matched by news reports going from 0 to 1. Yemen and the Red Sea went the other way, with news mentions falling from 194 to 39 (-80%). Yemeni government forces reportedly seized strategic positions in al-Jawf 1, and the Saudi-led coalition says it struck Houthi missile facilities 87. Iran, Iraq and the Gulf saw both readings fall: heat detections from 280 to 105 (-62%) and news mentions from 219 to 129 (-41%).
Sterling, the shekel and the yuan all became unusually jumpy
The British pound moved from Calm to Aligned, with its stress score rising from 13 to 92. The Israeli shekel moved from Calm to FX stress only, from 20 to 98. The Chinese yuan also moved from Calm to FX stress only, from 42 to 100. Three major currencies reached or neared the top of the scale in one week.
The Brazilian real moved 7.6% over the period, from 5.0465 to 5.4325. The Singapore dollar's stress score rose from 2 to 53, and the Japanese yen's from 10 to 54.
Israel and the UK saw country stress scores jump on currency swings
Israel's sovereign heat score rose from 54 to 78, moving from the elevated to the high zone. Its currency component went from 20 to 98 and its news component from 21 to 36. The rise coincided with reports of at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza and of the Hebron siege displacing thousands6, 19. The UK's score rose from 33 to 70, low to high, with the currency component going from 13 to 92 and the news component from 0 to 54. That coincided with a UK minister saying the slave-trade apology will not lead to financial reparations, and with Starmer saying the UK must move closer to Europe. These coincided in time; the dashboard does not show one causing the other.
Currency swings drove the other risers too. New Zealand went from 18 to 51 with its currency component at 66, Switzerland from 29 to 57 with 77, and Norway from 31 to 51 with 61. Romania's score fell from 76 to 60 as its currency component dropped from 91 to 45, around the time Romania said a Russia-run sabotage network set fire near a weapons factory. Taiwan's fell from 39 to 25.
Shipping through the Luzon and Dover straits fell sharply
The seven-day average at the Luzon Strait fell from 103.4 transits to 62.3 (-40%), and is 34% below a year ago. The latest day, 25 October, showed 98 transits. Dover Strait fell from 175.0 to 128.7 (-26%), 17% below a year ago, with 135 on the latest day.
Taiwan Strait slipped from 227.3 to 190.0 (-16%) but is 25% above a year ago, with 240 transits on the latest day. The Bosporus rose from 46.6 to 53.7 (+15%), though it is 47% below a year ago. The Strait of Hormuz is a standing condition rather than news: a seven-day average of 3.3 transits, 97% below a year ago.
A very strong El Niño sits behind extreme rainfall from Sulawesi to Chile
El Niño is rated very strong and strengthening, with an ONI of 2.16 and a Nino 3.4 anomaly of 2.84 C, unchanged since last week. Bolivia has declared a state of emergency over El Niño 5. Central Sulawesi, which matters for nickel, has had 8% of normal rain over 90 days, drier than every one of the past 25 years. Indonesia now supplies most of the world's nickel, and rain and drought affect mine roads and smelter power. Historically the area is drier than normal from August to November, and it is very dry now. Maharashtra, which decides sugar and cotton output and with it export curbs, has had 9% of normal rain over 30 days. Central Chile has had 1494% of normal over 30 days, wetter than every one of the past 25 years. Winter rain and snow there fill the reservoirs that mines and farms rely on, and copper is what it matters for.
Riau in Sumatra, which matters for palm oil, is at 72% of normal over 90 days. Dry spells there cut output a few months later. The middle Mississippi valley has had 31% of normal rain over 30 days. Low autumn water restricts US grain barges heading to the Gulf, though this is local rain, not river level. The Kenyan highlands, usually wetter from October to December, are very dry. Southern Somalia has had 313% of normal rain over 30 days, in a place where repeated failed rains have driven famine risk and displacement. Paraná in southern Brazil is at 184% of normal over 90 days, in a region whose crops are very sensitive to La Niña drought. Ivory Coast's cocoa belt has had 132% of normal over 30 days but only 60% over 90 days.
Media attention on German hubs jumped from Elevated to High
Germany's media-attention risk index rose from 57 to 90, moving from Elevated to High. The Netherlands went from 46 to 62 (Moderate to Elevated) and Japan from 49 to 62 (Moderate to Elevated). The index measures media attention, not physical disruption.
Two new critical-mineral rain alerts appeared. Nickel in Central Sulawesi carries the top level, 2 of 2, at 8% of normal 90-day rain. Alumina and bauxite in Boké, Guinea carry level 1 of 2, at 59% of normal.
Ebola and Congo monitoring thinned to a single source
Monitor status for Ebola moved from corroborated to single, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Kenya hotspots each did the same. Marburg virus moved from single to quiet. These are labels for how many independent signals agree, not confirmed case counts.
Public attention to yellow fever is now unusually high, with a z-score of 2.2 against -0.9 a week earlier.
Red rain warnings cover parts of Italy and Greece
Italy has an official red rain warning for Campania, Puglia and Basilicata, and Greece one for Central Makedonia, East Makedonia and the Dodekanisa Islands. Both countries also have orange thunderstorm warnings. In the United States, a flood watch covers Palm Beach, Broward and 21 more areas of Florida, and a flood warning covers Coconino, Yavapai, Pima and 8 more areas of Arizona.
Australia and South Africa turned to politics while four others turned away
The share of news on politics and international affairs rose in Australia from 35% to 80% and in South Africa from 30% to 75%. It fell in Spain from 75% to 30% and Türkiye from 75% to 30%. In Israel it fell from 85% to 45% and in Saudi Arabia from 85% to 45%.
September was the second-warmest on record
NASA puts September 2026 at +1.38°C against the 1951-1980 average, the No. 2 warmest September of 147 on record. Some 61% of Earth's surface was at least 1°C warmer than that average. The 12-month average is 1.53°C above 1850-1900, on the Met Office HadCRUT5 series to February 2025.
World air temperature over the latest seven days is +0.98°C against 1991-2020. World sea surface temperature is +0.60°C against the same baseline.
What to watch
ECB President Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, as the central bank announced 44. The Bank of Japan has set the timetable for its US dollar funds-supplying operations for November 2026 to March 2027 30.
Sources
- Yemeni government: Yemeni government forces have seized strategic positions in al-Jawf. (aljazeera.com)
- Bolivia: Bolivia has declared a state of emergency over the El Nino weather pattern. (aljazeera.com)
- Israel: At least four Palestinians killed in Gaza as Israeli attacks continue. (aljazeera.com)
- France: France has deployed 70,000 police across 150 planned demonstrations ahead of expected unrest. (theguardian.com)
- Poland: Riot police are deployed to Poland's constitutional court after a judge is suspended. (theguardian.com)
- United States: The US has approved the sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. (bbc.co.uk)
- Israel: Israel's siege on Hebron is reported to have displaced thousands of people. (aljazeera.com)
- Italy: Italy has tightened security as students and unions launch nationwide protests. (aljazeera.com)
- Ukraine: Ukraine renews drone attacks, with a Russian oil refinery reported struck. (aljazeera.com)
- Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan sets the timetable for its U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations for November 2026 to March 2027. (boj.or.jp)
- Russia: A Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian railway station killed 13 people. (news.un.org)
- European Central Bank: ECB President Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, as announced by the central bank. (ecb.europa.eu)
- Spain: Riot police are deployed in Madrid as protests erupt over a deadly train crash. (aljazeera.com)
- Russia: Russia launched 280 drones at Ukraine as a local ceasefire began in Oleshky. (theguardian.com)
- Saudi-led coalition: The Saudi-led coalition says it struck Houthi missile facilities. (aljazeera.com)
Figures in the dashboard sections come from Earthlog's own monitors (conflicts, chokepoints, supply-chain risk, health, currencies, attention, sovereign heat, natural hazards, rainfall and el niño, climate) and compare their readings now with an earlier reading. Where moves are mentioned beside a change, they are context, not proven causes.
Moves are logged from public statements and reporting; tier and stage labels are Earthlog's reading of the wording, not verification. Drawn from 90 of the 210 moves logged.
