Washington squeezes sanctions harder while Pyongyang and Kyiv keep the pressure on

Sanctions land on Rwanda's defence ministry while North Korea keeps firing

The US has reportedly sanctioned Rwanda's defence ministry over the DR Congo conflict ⁹. In the same window North Korea fired ballistic missiles off its east coast as tensions with South Korea rose, according to media reports ³, and it reportedly fired missiles again as a row over a landmine blast intensified ⁸. El Salvador has agreed to send 2,000 troops to Haiti to rescue four missing soldiers, according to reports ¹⁰, after pledging more than 2,000 soldiers for Haiti as Haiti delayed elections ⁷.

Ukraine and Myanmar heat readings jump sharply

Satellite heat detections in the Ukraine and Russia region rose from 19 to 193 since yesterday, and heat detections matched by news reports rose from 1 to 4. Myanmar rose from 5 to 111 detections over the same period. Russia claims more than 600 drones were launched towards Moscow overnight ¹³.

Shipping through the Luzon Strait and Dover Strait falls sharply

The seven-day average of transits through the Luzon Strait fell 40%, from 103.4 to 62.3, and is 34% below a year ago. Dover Strait transits fell 26% to a seven-day average of 128.7. Taiwan Strait transits fell 16% over the same period but are 25% above a year ago.

Currency stress climbs in Turkey, South Korea and Malaysia

The Turkish lira's stress score rose from 55 to 100. South Korea's won went from 10 to 65 and the ringgit from 0 to 84. The shekel moved 2.5% against the dollar over the period. South Korea's overall sovereign heat rose from 31 to 54, with a North Korea howitzer sighting and missile launches logged around the same time as context, not as proven causes.

Israel's sovereign heat rises as Hebron lockdown and West Bank raids continue

Israel's sovereign heat score rose from 67 to 74, with its currency component at 86 to 100 and a currency swing flag. Israeli forces continue West Bank raids as a Hebron lockdown enters its sixth day ³⁷, and the Hebron lockdown has reportedly postponed a groom's wedding.

Britain's budget raises taxes on banks and landlords to fund £100 payments

Budget 2026 has agreed tax rises on banks and landlords to fund £100 payments to 20 million households ¹⁹. Chancellor Healey's package is criticised as badly targeted by the Resolution Foundation ⁶, and the budget leaves income tax thresholds frozen again ²⁸. Labour MPs have urged the leadership not to overrule the energy secretary on the Rosebank oil field decision ¹².

Central banks split: Canada hikes, the Fed holds

The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate for the first time in three years ²⁵. The US held rates ¹⁶, ahead of a possible Bank of England rate hike ¹⁶. The ECB has announced that Christine Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027 ².

Natural hazard warnings cluster in India and the US

India has an official red flash flood warning and an orange flood warning in Odisha. The US has orange flood watches across Arizona and New Mexico and a winter storm warning in Alaska. Super Typhoon In-fa was newly tracked with winds of 115 knots.

Also moving on the dashboards

Hub Singapore (media-attention risk index): score 48 to 38.

Marburg virus: monitor status single to quiet (a monitoring label based on how many independent signals agree, not confirmed cases).

Spain: the share of its news coverage on politics and international affairs fell below 65% (75% to 45%).

What to watch

The Bank of England publishes its remit for the Monetary Policy Committee for October 2026 ²⁹, and Lagarde's successor process at the ECB begins ahead of her 7 February 2027 departure date ².

Sources

1. European Central Bank: ECB President Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, as announced by the central bank. (ecb.europa.eu)
2. North Korea: North Korea fired ballistic missiles off its east coast as tensions with South Korea rose. (news.sky.com)
3. United Kingdom: Healey's £4.4bn cost of living support package is criticised as badly targeted by the Resolution Foundation. (theguardian.com)
4. El Salvador: El Salvador pledges more than 2,000 soldiers for Haiti as Haiti delays elections. (aljazeera.com)
5. North Korea: North Korea fires missiles as a row over a landmine blast intensifies. (aljazeera.com)
6. United States: The US has imposed sanctions on Rwanda's defence ministry over the DR Congo conflict. (bbc.co.uk)
7. El Salvador: El Salvador sends 2,000 troops to Haiti to rescue four missing soldiers. (bbc.co.uk)
8. United Kingdom: Labour MPs urge the leadership not to overrule the energy secretary on the Rosebank oil field decision. (theguardian.com)
9. Ukraine: Russia says more than 600 drones were launched towards Moscow overnight. (aljazeera.com)
10. United States: The US has held interest rates, ahead of a possible Bank of England rate hike. (news.sky.com)
11. United Kingdom: Budget 2026 raises taxes on banks and landlords to fund £100 handouts to 20 million households. (theguardian.com)
12. Bank of Canada: Bank of Canada raises its policy interest rate for the first time in three years. (aljazeera.com)
13. United Kingdom: Chancellor Healey's budget leaves income tax thresholds frozen again, raising questions about how much more people will pay. (theguardian.com)
14. Bank of England: The Bank of England publishes its remit for the Monetary Policy Committee for October 2026. (bankofengland.co.uk)
15. Israel: Israeli forces continue West Bank raids as a Hebron lockdown enters its sixth day. (aljazeera.com)

Figures in the dashboard sections come from Earthlog's own monitors (conflicts, chokepoints, supply-chain risk, health, currencies, attention, sovereign heat, natural hazards) and compare their readings now with an earlier reading. Where moves are mentioned beside a change, they are context, not proven causes.

Moves are logged from public statements and reporting; tier and stage labels are Earthlog's reading of the wording, not verification.