Earthlog · Markets and macro
Where countries are under market and news pressure right now. Each score blends what is changing now (unusual currency moves, news and central-bank rate changes) with how stressed the country is in general (conflict and unrest coverage, a year of currency losses, the level of its policy rate). It is a monitor, not a credit rating or a default forecast.
| Country | Overall | Now | Baseline |
|---|
How to read this. Every score runs from 0 to 100. Now asks what is unusual compared with the country's own recent normal: the last 20 days of currency moves against its past year, the last day of GDELT news coverage against its previous 60 days, and the change in the central bank's policy rate over 90 days. Baseline asks how stressed the country is in general, compared with the others: how high its conflict, violence, protest and negative-tone coverage ranks over the last 30 days, how much its currency lost against the dollar over 12 months (25% or more scores 100), and where its policy rate sits among those tracked. Each of these two scores is half the weighted average of its signals and half its strongest signal, so one extreme signal is not averaged away. Overall is half the stronger of the two and half a 60/40 blend of them. A country with a single signal (for example only its conflict coverage) is scored from that one and marked "one signal only". A dash means the signal does not exist for the country or is too old to use.
What it is not. There is no free daily source of government bond yields or credit default swaps, so those are not used; for the same reason, a central bank defending its currency through bond yields (for example Japan) is not visible. The policy-rate level is nominal and does not account for inflation. The credit-spread tiles are emerging-market corporate bond indexes from FRED, shown for context and not scored. News history is still short for many countries (the 60-day comparison needs about 40 days), so their Now score leans on currency and rates until it fills in. This is an automated screen, not an investment opinion.
Sources: ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, BIS policy rates, FRED, GDELT.