Earthlog · Markets and supply
Who digs and refines the minerals that batteries, chips, magnets, steel and grids depend on, how concentrated that supply is, how much of it comes from countries under unrest, and what weather or quakes are hitting the key mining regions right now. A few countries control most of these supplies, which makes them a lever in trade and security policy.
| Mineral | Leading producer | Risk |
|---|
How the risk score works. From 0 to 100, taken from the most concentrated stage of the supply chain for each mineral (mining, refining or smelting): 60 percent is how concentrated output is (the Herfindahl index of the named producing countries; at 4,500 or more, roughly one country making two-thirds of the supply, it scores full marks) and 40 percent is the share of output coming from countries in the top quarter for unrest (half the world's supply or more scores full marks). It describes where supply is exposed. It is not a forecast of a shortage.
Unrest level. Each country's last 30 days of news coverage, ranked for conflict, violence, protest and negative tone against every country in the news archive (0 to 100; 75 or more counts as high). Countries with only a few days in the archive are marked with the number of days; very small samples can swing.
What it is not. The production and reserve figures are annual USGS estimates (edition shown below) and mostly cover mining; the refining and processing steps, where China is often even more dominant for lithium, cobalt and rare earths, are only shown where USGS reports them. Withheld figures (marked W by USGS) are left out, so shares for those minerals can be understated. Prices are monthly averages from the IMF via FRED; there is no free price series for cobalt, lithium or rare earths, so none is shown.
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, IMF and FRED prices, GDELT, NASA POWER, USGS earthquakes.