Earthlog · Signals on the faultlines
Which currencies are unusually jumpy, and in which of those countries the news is also unusually tense. Where both agree, the currency is marked Aligned. This is context, not a forecast.
| Currency | Status | FX stress | News pressure |
|---|
FX stress (0 to 100) is the stronger of two signals: how jumpy a currency has been over the last 20 trading days compared with its own past year (a score of 90 means more jumpy than 90% of the past year), and how unusual the latest daily move is. Rates are measured against the US dollar and come from the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, one per weekday, so they lag live markets.
News pressure is how unusual the last full day of the country's news coverage is against its previous 60 days: more conflict, violence and protest coverage, and a more negative tone, push it up. A value of 1.5 or more counts as elevated. The euro is paired with Germany as a stand-in for the euro area.
Aligned means FX stress is 85 or more and news pressure is 1.5 or more (the shaded zone on the chart). Many alignments will be coincidence. The last chart tests, on this archive, whether news pressure has tended to come before unusual currency moves; with only a few months of history it usually cannot say yet. Not investment advice.